Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,932$ on 2020-10-10

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $317$ on 2020-10-10

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,662$ on 2020-10-10

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $60,368$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,587.9}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 100.4)}}\) (asimptote \(58,587.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,088$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,980.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,980.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,880$ on 2020-10-10

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $349,494$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262,658.2}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(262,658.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,140$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,994.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(34,994.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $74,829$ on 2020-10-10

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,717,932$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,944,594.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,944,594.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $214,370$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{205,804.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 88.3)}}\) (asimptote \(205,804.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,440,579$ on 2020-10-10

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $593,565$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{407,997.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 85.3)}}\) (asimptote \(407,997.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,850$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,082.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(41,082.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $548,220$ on 2020-10-10

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $98,451$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,098.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 98.9)}}\) (asimptote \(90,098.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,894$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,777.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,777.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $92,557$ on 2020-10-10

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $323,463$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{255,339.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 60.4)}}\) (asimptote \(255,339.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,620$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,131.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,131.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,909$ on 2020-10-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 99%
Mauritania recovered 96%
Kazakhstan recovered 91%
Madagascar recovered 88%
Saudi Arabia recovered 85%
Korea, South recovered 80%
Uzbekistan recovered 73%
El Salvador recovered 65%
Senegal recovered 61%
Malawi recovered 57%
Cuba recovered 55%
Bolivia recovered 52%
United Arab Emirates recovered 49%
Tajikistan recovered 42%
Bahrain recovered 40%
Rwanda recovered 39%
Venezuela recovered 36%
Bangladesh recovered 31%
Denmark recovered 18%
India recovered 15%
Israel recovered 14%
Uganda recovered 11%
Iraq recovered 8%
Burkina Faso recovered 5%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,866$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,136.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(56,136.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $141$ on 2020-10-10

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,550$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,145.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 92.0)}}\) (asimptote \(7,145.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $163$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 77.3)}}\) (asimptote \(158.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-10-10

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,757$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,649.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,649.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,746$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,743.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,743.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,031$ on 2020-10-10

Madagascar⮸

Population $27,691,018$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,702$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,224.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.6)}}\) (asimptote \(16,224.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $237$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 67.2)}}\) (asimptote \(231.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $453$ on 2020-10-10